Cross Validated
2022-08-06 10:38 UTC
By Safi Khan
AI-113-20220806-social-media-bccee83a
Using Confidence Intervals for finding confidence of forecasting model
My question is quite a general one. Can I use the width of the confidence interval (let's say a 95% confidence interval) to find out how confident my model is while doing time series forecasting? I am thinking that as we go on forecasting in the future, the width of the confidence interval increases, and maybe after a threshold we can say that model is not confident enough to do forecasting. Is this a correct line of thinking? Otherwise is there any other way I can use to determine how confident my model is and hence how much further in the future I can forecast?
My question is quite a general one. Can I use the width of the confidence interval (let's say a 95% confidence interval) to find out how confident my model is while doing time series forecasting? I am thinking that as we go on forecasting in the future, the width of the confidence interval increases, and maybe after a threshold we can say that model is not confident enough to do forecasting. Is this a correct line of thinking? Otherwise is there any other way I can use to determine how confident my model is and hence how much further in the future I can forecast?
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Cross Validated
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