Exits create virtuous cycles that are crucial to the region’s push to build a market dependent on intellectual property rather than hydrocarbons. When Dubai-based Careem was acquired by Uber in 2019 for $3.1 billion, for example, the buyout made 75 of its employees millionaires, creating a new generation of potential founders and backers in the region.

But as a relatively new venture capital market, the Middle East is also more sensitive to shocks, and, like its counterparts in Asia, tends to have higher transparency and financial disclosure thresholds, Patel said. This can make it harder to gauge true performance and fair value when preparing a company to be listed or sold.

Global investors will closely watch the performance of blockbuster IPOs like SpaceX and any eventual listings of frontier AI companies as critical bellwethers, Patel said. A series of successful market debuts could boost confidence and lead to more exits globally, including in the Gulf. Weak performances would reinforce a reluctance to list and keep the exit window narrow.

A lack of exits is “not a fact of these companies not being ready to exit or being potentially not great candidates to exit,” Patel emphasized. “It’s because of market conditions. No one really wants to list at the moment.”