Summer 2026 is likely to be the warmest on record in the UK, with repeated searing heatwaves and a severe drought affecting much of the country. In southern England in particular, the landscape is parched and crispy, rivers and reservoirs are running low, and trees are shedding their leaves in a stress response to the dry weather. Much of Europe is baking under similar conditions.

How much longer can we cope without rain? And how long will it take us to recover from such an unprecedented dry spell? With the help of experts from across water, agriculture and climate, we’ve answered your key questions below.

How bad is the drought?

Almost three-quarters of England is now in drought conditions after the driest July in almost two centuries, when barely any rain fell in many places. The National Drought Group – which includes public bodies, agricultural and environmental organisations – has described the situation as an “exceptionally serious” flash drought, driven by a combination of very high temperatures and exceptionally low rainfall over recent weeks.

It is taking a severe toll on the landscape. Almost 250 wildfires have been reported in biodiversity hotspots this year, wetlands and peatlands are drying out, and trees are dying. Some 22 per cent of rivers are at exceptionally low levels, including the Avon, Wye, Ely Ouse and Exe.

“The almost completely dry July is exceptionally unusual and add to that the heatwaves, the soils have dried very quickly and river flows have dropped very fast,” says Glenn Watts at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

How short of water are we?

The dry, hot weather over July and August has rapidly depleted rivers, reservoirs and underground aquifers, despite the wet winter England just experienced. Reservoir levels in England have fallen to 69 per cent – 11.6 per cent lower than what would be expected for this time of year. Reservoir storage in the country fell 16 per cent in July, the greatest reduction in raw storage for at least 30 years, the UK government said this week.

It is a sign of the impact of climate change, which is expected to bring drier, hotter summers to the UK. This year shows that even a wet winter isn’t enough to carry the UK through an extremely hot, dry summer. “Currently the situation is that we’re just simply using too much water,” says Kevin Grecksch at the University of Oxford. “We’re not replenishing at the same speed as we’re using water.”

But great progress has been made in improving water storage, infrastructure and the industry’s response to drought in recent years, says Kevin Collins at the Open University. This means the water industry is better equipped to deal with drought than it was in 1976, even though the weather has been hotter and drier for a longer period than 50 years ago. “It’s more severe than 1976 in terms of heatwaves and repetition of heatwaves, but the status of the water-supply system is currently not as bad as it was in 1976,” he says.

How are trees, plants and wildlife coping?

You may have noticed the crunch of dry leaves underfoot in recent weeks. That’s a sign stressed trees are going through a “false autumn”, where they shed their leaves and even branches in an effort to keep their main stem alive. Some will not make it through – the 2022 heatwave killed 400 trees at Kew Gardens in London. Younger trees are at greater risk, as newly planted trees need 50 litres of water per week during the summer months for the first three years after planting.

Meanwhile, low river levels are causing algal blooms in rivers, and hard, dry soils make it impossible for animals such as badgers and hedgehogs to dig for food. Fierce wildfires have swept through nature reserves, destroying habitats and killing wildlife.

Unfortunately, this is the third drought in five years for England, and ecosystems are already stressed and weakened by these previous events. That makes it more difficult for them to recover from this extreme summer.

When will it next rain?

The intense heat of this week will give way to cooler temperatures next week, according to the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service. Although temperatures are expected to be closer to average for this time of year, whether rain will fall in the areas under the most stress is far from certain. Forecasters have struggled this year to accurately forecast rain, with wet weather often failing to materialise.

Even if rain showers do arrive next week, it is unlikely to be enough to alleviate the drought, the Met Office said in a blog post this week. There’s also the not insignificant risk of a dry, hot September, with long-term forecasts currently favouring drier weather.

What happens if there’s no rain the next few weeks?

Water companies will prioritise maintaining household water supplies above all else, but other sectors, such as agriculture or commercial businesses, are likely to face increasingly tight restrictions over the coming weeks if the drought continues.

Hosepipe bans – known as temporary use bans – are already in place across much of the country and can reduce consumption by 5 to 10 per cent. At least one water company – Southern Water – has applied to the government for a drought order. That would give it powers to introduce a non-essential use ban that restricts certain commercial activities such as car washing, window cleaning and watering commercial premises. Other water companies have signalled they will follow suit if the situation doesn’t improve in the next few weeks. Water companies can also apply to take more water from rivers and aquifers to maintain supply, but this threatens wildlife and habitats.

The next step up is an emergency drought order, which needs to be approved by the environment secretary. This would allow water companies to impose rota cuts on household and commercial customers, as happened in 1976 when mains water to households was curtailed and standpipes were installed in streets.

However, this is highly unlikely to happen this year, says Collins, as water companies would deploy all other possible measures first. “Public water supply is always the priority, no matter what happens,” he says.

Is there a threat to food supply?

Farmers are already warning that yields of some crops will be significantly lower than normal this summer because of the drought. Wheat yields are expected to be down 14 per cent compared with the average, and potato yields are expected to be 10 to 15 per cent lower than average. Meanwhile, harvests of fruits such as apples are also expected to be lower than usual, and the fruit smaller in size. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a think tank, estimates it could be the worst harvest on record for UK farmers, with drought-related yield losses potentially costing arable farmers £390 million in lost revenue.

The situation is made worse by the fact that much of Europe is also sweltering under hot, dry conditions, meaning food production across the continent is also likely to fall this year. Together, that is likely to push food prices up for consumers into the autumn, particularly for fruit.

Farmers in England are struggling to adapt to heat and drought extremes because the weather is still so changeable, says Matthew Paul at Rothamsted Research. “We’re not like the Mediterranean, where you get predictably hot, dry summers every year,” he says. Paul’s research is focused on breeding crops and developing treatments to boost yields in both wet and dry conditions. “The solution isn’t to breed drought-tolerant crops that only do well under droughts,” he says.

What could water companies be doing to save water?

Over the longer term, England needs to get better at storing water from its wet winters to tide it over during the summer months. This means building new reservoirs – a costly, time-consuming endeavour – and expanding water-transfer schemes to transport water from wet regions to dry ones. Even more radical plans are being explored, from building desalination plants to artificially injecting more water into underground aquifers during winter months.

The Environment Agency predicts there could be a shortfall of 5 billion litres per day in water supply across England by 2050 if more isn’t done to limit demand and increase supply.

How long will it take for the drought to end?

In the eyes of the public, a few days of rain is enough for the drought to be over. But it takes landscapes and wildlife far longer to recover from such an extreme dry spell. The flash drought that developed last year across England only ended in autumn when weeks of above-average rainfall arrived.

Hydrologists will be watching closely for a wet autumn and winter this year, which will help to recharge rivers and groundwater ahead of next summer. A strong El Niño now underway in the Pacific Ocean could increase the chances of a wetter start to winter for the UK, although El Niño’s influence on UK weather is indirect and difficult to predict.

However, a dry winter could leave the UK vulnerable. “A dry winter would make us worried about next spring and summer,” says Watts. That would put the country in a vulnerable position and raise the threat of emergency drought orders being introduced.