A chart showing imports of unwrought platinum by country.

The differing approaches between the US and China to court South Africa speaks volumes about Pretoria’s relationship with the world’s two largest economies — and the strategic priorities of all three.

Both superpowers use PGMs — a group of metals that include platinum and which are typically found in the same deposits — to build data centers: Platinum and ruthenium are used in the electronic components inside AI-training hardware, while iridium plays a key role in advanced chipmaking processes. China has calculated that it needs these elements to meet its strategic goal of building a network of state-run data centers to integrate AI into 90% of its economy by 2030.

But Washington and Beijing differ starkly in how and why they use platinum in their energy strategies.

The Trump administration’s cuts to subsidies for electric vehicles has driven imports of platinum and palladium for catalytic converters needed for gasoline-powered cars.

China, by contrast, values platinum for green hydrogen technology, a form of clean energy that it identified as a “future industry” in its most recent five-year plan. Beijing is making a big bet on green hydrogen, more than tripling its annual operational capacity since the end of 2024, Bloomberg reported. Valterra — which was spun out of Anglo American last year — forecast that an expanded push to green hydrogen could add 6 million ounces of demand a year, more than enough to offset shrinking auto-catalyst vehicle sales.

Indeed, Chinese customs data shows a sharp rise in imports of unprocessed platinum and palladium over the past five years, an approach in keeping with a playbook that involves importing raw materials for local processing. Analysts at research firm Trivium and think tank ODI Global said the surge points to Beijing stockpiling to protect its economy against market vicissitudes, given the global scarcity of PGMs.

Oupa Nkosi/Semafor

The Bushveld Igneous Complex, thus, is South Africa’s ace card.

Beijing has shown a strong appetite for metals needed to realize its economic vision and Washington needs PGMs to drive the Trump administration’s automotive and defense policies.

Pretoria, mindful of Washington’s transactional approach to foreign policy under Trump, is trying to use its mineral advantage to attract investment from US companies to develop local processing. Adding value to raw materials, which South Africa already does to a greater extent than its African peers, is the goal of countries across the continent. The hope for South African officials is that it could boost the nation’s stuttering economy and create jobs in a labor market grappling with unemployment that recently hit a four-year high.

The appeal for South Africa’s government is clear in Mokopane, the nearest town to Mogalakwena. Driving through the town at daybreak, the groups of men in protective uniforms and convoys of long haul trucks point to the massive economic contribution of the mine to a community Valterra estimates supplies 70% of the plant’s workforce.

Still, privately, government officials and business leaders told Semafor that South Africa would not overplay its hand by making any attempt to withhold access to these metals; PGMs make up more than a third of its exports to the US. Pretoria will also be aware that diplomacy can yield positive results with the Trump administration: Frank Garcia, US assistant secretary of state for Africa, this month said the US will help Kenya to develop a critical minerals processing industry. And DR Congo is setting up a task force to speed up the implementation of a strategic mining partnership with Washington.

But Washington’s criticism of South Africa shows no sign of abating, despite Pretoria’s overtures: Only last week, the US imposed new visa restrictions on South African officials that the Trump administration accuses of “government-sponsored discrimination” against the white minority Afrikaner community. Yet the episode also offered evidence of how natural resources provide a bulwark against an adversarial White House. Despite threatening to unleash “escalatory measures” to punish Pretoria for what it deems to be unfair treatment of Afrikaners, Washington’s need for PGMs means those key trade ties are likely to remain intact.

For the US, rebuffing Pretoria’s appeal to forge commercial ties risks losing further ground to Beijing in the race to secure access to Africa’s natural resources. China’s trade with Africa last year was four times larger than Washington’s with the continent, and that gap looks set to widen after Beijing extended its zero-tariff policy across Africa. The US, meanwhile, has wielded tariffs as weapons.

Oupa Nkosi/Semafor