LessWrong AI
2026-11-08 18:35 UTC
By David Scott Krueger
USR-0152-20261108-community-fo-13527173
Restraint on the part of the front-runner seems like quite a strong signal.
How's this for an analogy? The situation You're in a car that is racing towards a prize at the edge of a cliff. Your car is chained to several other cars that are also racing towards the cliff. You can hit the brakes and pull over, but if the other cars don't also do that, they will still drag you off the cliff. Maybe if enough of you all slam on your brakes, it's still OK if a few don't. You don't know how worried the other cars are about the cliff, but some level of potential concern among cars that the prize is right next to a cliff is common knowledge. What I'd do If you are at the front of the pack, it seems like probably a good idea to lean into your horn, hit the brakes, pull over, and wave out the window to the people behind you to pull over. I mean, they might not do it. But also, it seems pretty likely they would? Like... what model explains your willingness to give up on reaching the prize first other than fear of a cliff? I suppose they might suspect that you are running out of gas? They might think that you are a fool to be scared of the cliff, but it seems like they might more reasonably infer that you've gotten close enough to it that you can just... SEE it. Why this might not work If I imagine this, I think my main concern is not that the other cars think this is some sort of trick on your part, but just that in the heat of the moment, they might not have the time or ability to think clearly about the situation, and be too focused on the prize. Fortunately, t…
How's this for an analogy? The situation You're in a car that is racing towards a prize at the edge of a cliff. Your car is chained to several other cars that are also racing towards the cliff. You can hit the brakes and pull over, but if the other cars don't also do that, they will still drag you off the cliff. Maybe if enough of you all slam on your brakes, it's still OK if a few don't. You don't know how worried the other cars are about the cliff, but some level of potential concern among cars that the prize is right next to a cliff is common knowledge. What I'd do If you are at the front of the pack, it seems like probably a good idea to lean into your horn, hit the brakes, pull over, and wave out the window to the people behind you to pull over. I mean, they might not do it. But also, it seems pretty likely they would? Like... what model explains your willingness to give up on reaching the prize first other than fear of a cliff? I suppose they might suspect that you are running out of gas? They might think that you are a fool to be scared of the cliff, but it seems like they might more reasonably infer that you've gotten close enough to it that you can just... SEE it. Why this might not work If I imagine this, I think my main concern is not that the other cars think this is some sort of trick on your part, but just that in the heat of the moment, they might not have the time or ability to think clearly about the situation, and be too focused on the prize. Fortunately, t…
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LessWrong AI
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