Non-Asymptotic Error Bounds for SMC with Biased Proposals: Application to Conditional Diffusion Sampling

Authors: Stanislas Strasman, Gabriel Victorino Cardoso, Sylvain Le Corff, Vincent Lemaire, Antonio Ocello

Abstract: Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a natural tool for post-hoc conditioning of pretrained generative models, but in many applications the mutation kernels used by the particle system are biased approximations of an ideal Feynman--Kac flow. This paper develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for such SMC samplers. Under forward-smoothing forgetting conditions, we decompose the total error int… ▽ More Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a natural tool for post-hoc conditioning of pretrained generative models, but in many applications the mutation kernels used by the particle system are biased approximations of an ideal Feynman--Kac flow. This paper develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for such SMC samplers. Under forward-smoothing forgetting conditions, we decompose the total error into a kernel bias, measuring the effect of replacing the ideal transition kernels by approximate ones, and a finite-particle Monte Carlo error. Our approach relies on extending local Doeblin-type conditions and Lyapunov drift arguments for Markov kernels to conditional distributions, thereby enabling a principled control of the bias. We then instantiate this general framework for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models, and derive the first non-asymptotic error bound that jointly controls initialization error, time discretization, and score approximation in the reverse diffusion dynamics as well as finite-particle Monte Carlo error. △ Less

Submitted 6 July, 2026; originally announced July 2026.

Non-asymptotic Convergence of Stochastic Gradient Descent in Score-based Generative Models

Authors: Stanislas Strasman, Sobihan Surendran, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved impressive performance in data generation across a wide range of applications. While the statistical properties of their sampling procedures are increasingly well understood, the optimization dynamics underlying their training remain less explored. SGMs are typically trained by minimizing a weighted denoising scorematching objective, yet optimizat… ▽ More Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved impressive performance in data generation across a wide range of applications. While the statistical properties of their sampling procedures are increasingly well understood, the optimization dynamics underlying their training remain less explored. SGMs are typically trained by minimizing a weighted denoising scorematching objective, yet optimization guarantees with stochastic gradients remain limited. In this work, we study Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for SGMs, contributing results in two complementary regimes. First, for general score parameterizations, we establish a non-convex convergence rate for SGD on the weighted denoising score-matching objective, with explicit dependence on the schedule-dependent weighting factors. Second, for overparameterized two-layer ReLU networks, we develop a Neural Tangent Kernel analysis tailored to diffusion training with stochastic gradients, yielding score-approximation error bounds along the SGD trajectory. Finally, our analysis quantifies the role of the reweighting factor in the score approximation error, providing theoretical guidance for weighting choices used in practice. △ Less

Submitted 6 July, 2026; originally announced July 2026.

Generalizing Score-based generative models for Heavy-tailed Distributions

Authors: Tiziano Fassina, Gabriel Cardoso, Sylvan Le Corff, Thomas Romary

Abstract: Score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable empirical success, motivating their application to a broad range of data distributions. However, extending them to heavy-tailed targets remains a largely open problem. Although dedicated models for heavy-tailed distributions have been proposed, their generative fidelity remains unclear and they lack solid theoretical foundations, leavin… ▽ More Score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable empirical success, motivating their application to a broad range of data distributions. However, extending them to heavy-tailed targets remains a largely open problem. Although dedicated models for heavy-tailed distributions have been proposed, their generative fidelity remains unclear and they lack solid theoretical foundations, leaving important questions open in this regime. In this paper, we address this gap through two theoretical contributions. First, we show that combining early stopping with a suitable initialization is sufficient to extend the diffusion framework to any target distribution; in particular, we establish the well-posedness of the backward process and prove convergence of the approximated diffusion in KL divergence. Second, we derive novel theoretical guarantees for generation with normalizing flows, obtaining convergence results that hold under mild conditions on the flow family and without any assumption on the tail behavior of the target distribution. Building on these results, we propose a unified generative framework for heavy-tailed distributions: a normalizing flow is first trained to capture the tail behavior and is then used as an initialization prior for an SGM, which refines the samples by recovering fine-grained structural details. This design leverages the complementary strengths of the two model classes within a theoretically principled pipeline, overcoming the limitations of existing approaches. △ Less

Submitted 14 May, 2026; v1 submitted 28 February, 2026; originally announced March 2026.

Efficient Online Variational Estimation via Monte Carlo Sampling

Authors: Mathis Chagneux, Mathias Müller, Pierre Gloaguen, Sylvain Le Corff, Jimmy Olsson

Abstract: This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive sequentially. The algorithm allows for the simultaneous training of the model parameters and the distribution of the latent states given the observations. It is ba… ▽ More This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive sequentially. The algorithm allows for the simultaneous training of the model parameters and the distribution of the latent states given the observations. It is based on i.i.d. Monte Carlo sampling, coupled with a well-chosen deep architecture, enabling both computational efficiency and flexibility. The performance of the method is illustrated on both synthetic data and real-world air-quality data. The proposed approach is theoretically motivated by the existence of an asymptotic contrast function and the ergodicity of the underlying Markov chain, and applies more generally to the computation of additive expectations under posterior distributions in state-space models. △ Less

Submitted 6 February, 2026; originally announced February 2026.

Entropic Mirror Monte Carlo

Authors: Anas Cherradi, Yazid Janati, Alain Durmus, Sylvain Le Corff, Yohan Petetin, Julien Stoehr

Abstract: Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions in highdimensional spaces, the efficiency of importance sampling critically depends on the choice of the proposal distribution. In this paper, we propose a nove… ▽ More Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions in highdimensional spaces, the efficiency of importance sampling critically depends on the choice of the proposal distribution. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive scheme for the construction of efficient proposal distributions. Our algorithm promotes efficient exploration of the target distribution by combining global sampling mechanisms with a delayed weighting procedure. The proposed weighting mechanism plays a key role by enabling rapid resampling in regions where the proposal distribution is poorly adapted to the target. Our sampling algorithm is shown to be geometrically convergent under mild assumptions and is illustrated through various numerical experiments. △ Less

Submitted 11 June, 2026; v1 submitted 3 February, 2026; originally announced February 2026.

On Forgetting and Stability of Score-based Generative models

Authors: Stanislas Strasman, Gabriel Cardoso, Sylvain Le Corff, Vincent Lemaire, Antonio Ocello

Abstract: Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning. This paper provides quantitative bounds on the sampling error of score-based generative models by leveraging stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain associated with the reverse-time dynamics. Under weak assumptions, we provide the two structural properties to… ▽ More Understanding the stability and long-time behavior of generative models is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning. This paper provides quantitative bounds on the sampling error of score-based generative models by leveraging stability and forgetting properties of the Markov chain associated with the reverse-time dynamics. Under weak assumptions, we provide the two structural properties to ensure the propagation of initialization and discretization errors of the backward process: a Lyapunov drift condition and a Doeblin-type minorization condition. A practical consequence is quantitative stability of the sampling procedure, as the reverse diffusion dynamics induces a contraction mechanism along the sampling trajectory. Our results clarify the role of stochastic dynamics in score-based models and provide a principled framework for analyzing propagation of errors in such approaches. △ Less

Submitted 2 June, 2026; v1 submitted 29 January, 2026; originally announced January 2026.

Independent Component Discovery in Temporal Count Data

Authors: Alexandre Chaussard, Anna Bonnet, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Advances in data collection are producing growing volumes of temporal count observations, making adapted modeling increasingly necessary. In this work, we introduce a generative framework for independent component analysis of temporal count data, combining regime-adaptive dynamics with Poisson log-normal emissions. The model identifies disentangled components with regime-dependent contributions, e… ▽ More Advances in data collection are producing growing volumes of temporal count observations, making adapted modeling increasingly necessary. In this work, we introduce a generative framework for independent component analysis of temporal count data, combining regime-adaptive dynamics with Poisson log-normal emissions. The model identifies disentangled components with regime-dependent contributions, enabling representation learning and perturbations analysis. Notably, we establish the identifiability of the model, supporting principled interpretation. To learn the parameters, we propose an efficient amortized variational inference procedure. Experiments on simulated data evaluate recovery of the mixing function and latent sources across diverse settings, while real-world applications to gut microbiome and climate datasets reveal co-variation patterns and regime shifts consistent with domain-specific knowledge. △ Less

Submitted 29 May, 2026; v1 submitted 29 January, 2026; originally announced January 2026.

Wasserstein Convergence of Critically Damped Langevin Diffusions

Authors: Stanislas Strasman, Sobihan Surendran, Claire Boyer, Sylvain Le Corff, Vincent Lemaire, Antonio Ocello

Abstract: Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved impressive performance in data generation across a wide range of applications and benefit from strong theoretical guarantees. Recently, methods inspired by statistical mechanics, in particular, Hamiltonian dynamics, have introduced Critically-damped Langevin Diffusions (CLDs), which define diffusion processes on extended spaces by coupling the dat… ▽ More Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved impressive performance in data generation across a wide range of applications and benefit from strong theoretical guarantees. Recently, methods inspired by statistical mechanics, in particular, Hamiltonian dynamics, have introduced Critically-damped Langevin Diffusions (CLDs), which define diffusion processes on extended spaces by coupling the data with auxiliary variables. These approaches, along with their associated score-matching and sampling procedures, have been shown to outperform standard diffusion-based samplers numerically. In this paper, we analyze a generalized dynamic that extends classical CLDs by introducing an additional hyperparameter controlling the noise applied to the data coordinate, thereby better exploiting the extended space. We further derive a novel upper bound on the sampling error of CLD-based generative models in the Wasserstein metric. This additional hyperparameter influences the smoothness of sample paths, and our discretization error analysis provides practical guidance for its tuning, leading to improved sampling performance. △ Less

Submitted 4 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

TaxaPLN: a taxonomy-aware augmentation strategy for microbiome-trait classification including metadata

Authors: Alexandre Chaussard, Anna Bonnet, Sylvain Le Corff, Harry Sokol

Abstract: The gut microbiome plays a crucial role in human health, making it a corner stone of modern biomedical research. To study its structure and dynamics, machine learning models are increasingly used to identify key microbial patterns associated with disease and environmental factors. However, microbiome data present unique challenges due to their compositionality, high-dimensionality, sparsity, and h… ▽ More The gut microbiome plays a crucial role in human health, making it a corner stone of modern biomedical research. To study its structure and dynamics, machine learning models are increasingly used to identify key microbial patterns associated with disease and environmental factors. However, microbiome data present unique challenges due to their compositionality, high-dimensionality, sparsity, and high variability, which can obscure meaningful signals. Besides, the effectiveness of machine learning models is often constrained by limited sample sizes, as microbiome data collection remains costly and time consuming. In this context, data augmentation has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance model robustness and predictive performance by generating artificial microbiome data. The aim of this study is to improve predictive modeling from microbiome data by introducing a model-based data augmentation approach that incorporates both taxonomic relationships and covariate information. To that end, we propose TaxaPLN, a data augmentation method built on PLN-Tree generative models, which leverages the taxonomy and a data-driven sampler to generate realistic synthetic microbiome compositions. We further introduce a conditional extension based on feature-wise linear modulation, enabling covariate-aware generation. Experiments on high-quality curated microbiome datasets show that TaxaPLN preserves ecological properties and generally improves or maintains predictive performances, particularly with non-linear classifiers, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Besides, TaxaPLN conditional augmentation establishes a novel benchmark for covariate-aware microbiome augmentation. The MIT-licensed source code is available at https://github.com/ AlexandreChaussard/PLNTree-package along with the datasets used in our experiments. △ Less

Submitted 4 July, 2025; originally announced July 2025.

Latent Guided Sampling for Combinatorial Optimization

Authors: Sobihan Surendran, Adeline Fermanian, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Combinatorial Optimization problems are widespread in domains such as logistics, manufacturing, and drug discovery, yet their NP-hard nature makes them computationally challenging. Recent Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) methods leverage deep learning to learn policies for constructing solutions, trained via Supervised or Reinforcement Learning. While promising, these approaches often rely… ▽ More Combinatorial Optimization problems are widespread in domains such as logistics, manufacturing, and drug discovery, yet their NP-hard nature makes them computationally challenging. Recent Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) methods leverage deep learning to learn policies for constructing solutions, trained via Supervised or Reinforcement Learning. While promising, these approaches often rely on task-specific augmentations, perform poorly on out-of-distribution instances, and lack robust inference mechanisms. Moreover, existing latent space models either require labeled data or use an instance-independent latent distribution. In this work, we propose LGS-Net, a novel latent space model that conditions on problem instances, and introduce an efficient inference method, Latent Guided Sampling (LGS), based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Stochastic Approximation. We show that the iterations of our method form a time-inhomogeneous Markov Chain and provide rigorous theoretical convergence guarantees. Empirical results on benchmark routing tasks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance among NCO baselines. △ Less

Submitted 9 June, 2026; v1 submitted 4 June, 2025; originally announced June 2025.

Theoretical Convergence Guarantees for Variational Autoencoders

Authors: Sobihan Surendran, Antoine Godichon-Baggioni, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Variational Autoencoders (VAE) are popular generative models used to sample from complex data distributions. Despite their empirical success in various machine learning tasks, significant gaps remain in understanding their theoretical properties, particularly regarding convergence guarantees. This paper aims to bridge that gap by providing non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for VAE trained usin… ▽ More Variational Autoencoders (VAE) are popular generative models used to sample from complex data distributions. Despite their empirical success in various machine learning tasks, significant gaps remain in understanding their theoretical properties, particularly regarding convergence guarantees. This paper aims to bridge that gap by providing non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for VAE trained using both Stochastic Gradient Descent and Adam algorithms. We derive a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\log n / \sqrt{n})$, where $n$ is the number of iterations of the optimization algorithm, with explicit dependencies on the batch size, the number of variational samples, and other key hyperparameters. Our theoretical analysis applies to both Linear VAE and Deep Gaussian VAE, as well as several VAE variants, including $β$-VAE and IWAE. Additionally, we empirically illustrate the impact of hyperparameters on convergence, offering new insights into the theoretical understanding of VAE training. △ Less

Submitted 22 December, 2025; v1 submitted 22 October, 2024; originally announced October 2024.

Tree-based variational inference for Poisson log-normal models

Authors: Alexandre Chaussard, Anna Bonnet, Elisabeth Gassiat, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: When studying ecosystems, hierarchical trees are often used to organize entities based on proximity criteria, such as the taxonomy in microbiology, social classes in geography, or product types in retail businesses, offering valuable insights into entity relationships. Despite their significance, current count-data models do not leverage this structured information. In particular, the widely used… ▽ More When studying ecosystems, hierarchical trees are often used to organize entities based on proximity criteria, such as the taxonomy in microbiology, social classes in geography, or product types in retail businesses, offering valuable insights into entity relationships. Despite their significance, current count-data models do not leverage this structured information. In particular, the widely used Poisson log-normal (PLN) model, known for its ability to model interactions between entities from count data, lacks the possibility to incorporate such hierarchical tree structures, limiting its applicability in domains characterized by such complexities. To address this matter, we introduce the PLN-Tree model as an extension of the PLN model, specifically designed for modeling hierarchical count data. By integrating structured variational inference techniques, we propose an adapted training procedure and establish identifiability results, enhancing both theoretical foundations and practical interpretability. Experiments on synthetic datasets and human gut microbiome data highlight generative improvements when using PLN-Tree, demonstrating the practical interest of knowledge graphs like the taxonomy in microbiome modeling. Additionally, we present a proof-of-concept implication of the identifiability results by illustrating the practical benefits of using identifiable features for classification tasks, showcasing the versatility of the framework. △ Less

Submitted 26 June, 2025; v1 submitted 25 June, 2024; originally announced June 2024.

Diffusion posterior sampling for simulation-based inference in tall data settings

Authors: Julia Linhart, Gabriel Victorino Cardoso, Alexandre Gramfort, Sylvain Le Corff, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Abstract: Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional inference methods such as MCMC inapplicable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) addresses this by training deep generative models to approximate the posterior distr… ▽ More Identifying the parameters of a non-linear model that best explain observed data is a core task across scientific fields. When such models rely on complex simulators, evaluating the likelihood is typically intractable, making traditional inference methods such as MCMC inapplicable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) addresses this by training deep generative models to approximate the posterior distribution over parameters using simulated data. In this work, we consider the tall data setting, where multiple independent observations provide additional information, allowing sharper posteriors and improved parameter identifiability. Building on the flourishing score-based diffusion literature, F-NPSE (Geffner et al., 2023) estimates the tall data posterior by composing individual scores from a neural network trained only for a single context observation. This enables more flexible and simulation-efficient inference than alternative approaches for tall datasets in SBI. However, it relies on costly Langevin dynamics during sampling. We propose a new algorithm that eliminates the need for Langevin steps by explicitly approximating the diffusion process of the tall data posterior. Our method retains the advantages of compositional score-based inference while being significantly faster and more stable than F-NPSE. We demonstrate its improved performance on toy problems and standard SBI benchmarks, and showcase its scalability by applying it to a complex real-world model from computational neuroscience. △ Less

Submitted 11 February, 2026; v1 submitted 11 April, 2024; originally announced April 2024.

An analysis of the noise schedule for score-based generative models

Authors: Stanislas Strasman, Antonio Ocello, Claire Boyer, Sylvain Le Corff, Vincent Lemaire

Abstract: Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at estimating a target data distribution by learning score functions using only noise-perturbed samples from the target.Recent literature has focused extensively on assessing the error between the target and estimated distributions, gauging the generative quality through the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distances. Under mild assumptions… ▽ More Score-based generative models (SGMs) aim at estimating a target data distribution by learning score functions using only noise-perturbed samples from the target.Recent literature has focused extensively on assessing the error between the target and estimated distributions, gauging the generative quality through the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distances. Under mild assumptions on the data distribution, we establish an upper bound for the KL divergence between the target and the estimated distributions, explicitly depending on any time-dependent noise schedule. Under additional regularity assumptions, taking advantage of favorable underlying contraction mechanisms, we provide a tighter error bound in Wasserstein distance compared to state-of-the-art results. In addition to being tractable, this upper bound jointly incorporates properties of the target distribution and SGM hyperparameters that need to be tuned during training. Finally, we illustrate these bounds through numerical experiments using simulated and CIFAR-10 datasets, identifying an optimal range of noise schedules within a parametric family. △ Less

Submitted 27 January, 2025; v1 submitted 7 February, 2024; originally announced February 2024.

Importance sampling for online variational learning

Authors: Mathis Chagneux, Pierre Gloaguen, Sylvain Le Corff, Jimmy Olsson

Abstract: This article addresses online variational estimation in state-space models. We focus on learning the smoothing distribution, i.e. the joint distribution of the latent states given the observations, using a variational approach together with Monte Carlo importance sampling. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing the gradient of the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in the context of streaming d… ▽ More This article addresses online variational estimation in state-space models. We focus on learning the smoothing distribution, i.e. the joint distribution of the latent states given the observations, using a variational approach together with Monte Carlo importance sampling. We propose an efficient algorithm for computing the gradient of the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in the context of streaming data, where observations arrive sequentially. Our contributions include a computationally efficient online ELBO estimator, demonstrated performance in offline and true online settings, and adaptability for computing general expectations under joint smoothing distributions. △ Less

Submitted 5 February, 2024; originally announced February 2024.

Non-asymptotic Analysis of Biased Adaptive Stochastic Approximation

Authors: Sobihan Surendran, Antoine Godichon-Baggioni, Adeline Fermanian, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with adaptive steps is widely used to train deep neural networks and generative models. Most theoretical results assume that it is possible to obtain unbiased gradient estimators, which is not the case in several recent deep learning and reinforcement learning applications that use Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a comprehensive non-asymptotic analysis of… ▽ More Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with adaptive steps is widely used to train deep neural networks and generative models. Most theoretical results assume that it is possible to obtain unbiased gradient estimators, which is not the case in several recent deep learning and reinforcement learning applications that use Monte Carlo methods. This paper provides a comprehensive non-asymptotic analysis of SGD with biased gradients and adaptive steps for non-convex smooth functions. Our study incorporates time-dependent bias and emphasizes the importance of controlling the bias of the gradient estimator. In particular, we establish that Adagrad, RMSProp, and AMSGRAD, an exponential moving average variant of Adam, with biased gradients, converge to critical points for smooth non-convex functions at a rate similar to existing results in the literature for the unbiased case. Finally, we provide experimental results using Variational Autoenconders (VAE) and applications to several learning frameworks that illustrate our convergence results and show how the effect of bias can be reduced by appropriate hyperparameter tuning. △ Less

Submitted 14 March, 2025; v1 submitted 5 February, 2024; originally announced February 2024.

Variational excess risk bound for general state space models

Authors: Élisabeth Gassiat, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: In this paper, we consider variational autoencoders (VAE) for general state space models. We consider a backward factorization of the variational distributions to analyze the excess risk associated with VAE. Such backward factorizations were recently proposed to perform online variational learning and to obtain upper bounds on the variational estimation error. When independent trajectories of seq… ▽ More In this paper, we consider variational autoencoders (VAE) for general state space models. We consider a backward factorization of the variational distributions to analyze the excess risk associated with VAE. Such backward factorizations were recently proposed to perform online variational learning and to obtain upper bounds on the variational estimation error. When independent trajectories of sequences are observed and under strong mixing assumptions on the state space model and on the variational distribution, we provide an oracle inequality explicit in the number of samples and in the length of the observation sequences. We then derive consequences of this theoretical result. In particular, when the data distribution is given by a state space model, we provide an upper bound for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data distribution and its estimator and between the variational posterior and the estimated state space posterior distributions.Under classical assumptions, we prove that our results can be applied to Gaussian backward kernels built with dense and recurrent neural networks. △ Less

Submitted 15 December, 2023; originally announced December 2023.

Monte Carlo guided Diffusion for Bayesian linear inverse problems

Authors: Gabriel Cardoso, Yazid Janati El Idrissi, Sylvain Le Corff, Eric Moulines

Abstract: Ill-posed linear inverse problems arise frequently in various applications, from computational photography to medical imaging. A recent line of research exploits Bayesian inference with informative priors to handle the ill-posedness of such problems. Amongst such priors, score-based generative models (SGM) have recently been successfully applied to several different inverse problems. In this study… ▽ More Ill-posed linear inverse problems arise frequently in various applications, from computational photography to medical imaging. A recent line of research exploits Bayesian inference with informative priors to handle the ill-posedness of such problems. Amongst such priors, score-based generative models (SGM) have recently been successfully applied to several different inverse problems. In this study, we exploit the particular structure of the prior defined by the SGM to define a sequence of intermediate linear inverse problems. As the noise level decreases, the posteriors of these inverse problems get closer to the target posterior of the original inverse problem. To sample from this sequence of posteriors, we propose the use of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. The proposed algorithm, MCGDiff, is shown to be theoretically grounded and we provide numerical simulations showing that it outperforms competing baselines when dealing with ill-posed inverse problems in a Bayesian setting. △ Less

Submitted 25 October, 2023; v1 submitted 15 August, 2023; originally announced August 2023.

Last layer state space model for representation learning and uncertainty quantification

Authors: Max Cohen, Maurice Charbit, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: As sequential neural architectures become deeper and more complex, uncertainty estimation is more and more challenging. Efforts in quantifying uncertainty often rely on specific training procedures, and bear additional computational costs due to the dimensionality of such models. In this paper, we propose to decompose a classification or regression task in two steps: a representation learning stag… ▽ More As sequential neural architectures become deeper and more complex, uncertainty estimation is more and more challenging. Efforts in quantifying uncertainty often rely on specific training procedures, and bear additional computational costs due to the dimensionality of such models. In this paper, we propose to decompose a classification or regression task in two steps: a representation learning stage to learn low-dimensional states, and a state space model for uncertainty estimation. This approach allows to separate representation learning and design of generative models. We demonstrate how predictive distributions can be estimated on top of an existing and trained neural network, by adding a state space-based last layer whose parameters are estimated with Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We apply our proposed methodology to the hourly estimation of Electricity Transformer Oil temperature, a publicly benchmarked dataset. Our model accounts for the noisy data structure, due to unknown or unavailable variables, and is able to provide confidence intervals on predictions. △ Less

Submitted 4 July, 2023; originally announced July 2023.

Variational latent discrete representation for time series modelling

Authors: Max Cohen, Maurice Charbit, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a better interpretation of latent spaces, as well as a more direct representation of naturally discrete phenomena. Most recent approaches propose to train separately v… ▽ More Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a better interpretation of latent spaces, as well as a more direct representation of naturally discrete phenomena. Most recent approaches propose to train separately very high-dimensional prior models on the discrete latent data which is a challenging task on its own. In this paper, we introduce a latent data model where the discrete state is a Markov chain, which allows fast end-to-end training. The performance of our generative model is assessed on a building management dataset and on the publicly available Electricity Transformer Dataset. △ Less

Submitted 16 August, 2023; v1 submitted 27 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Asymptotic convergence of iterative optimization algorithms

Authors: Randal Douc, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: This paper introduces a general framework for iterative optimization algorithms and establishes under general assumptions that their convergence is asymptotically geometric. We also prove that under appropriate assumptions, the rate of convergence can be lower bounded. The convergence is then only geometric, and we provide the exact asymptotic convergence rate. This framework allows to deal with c… ▽ More This paper introduces a general framework for iterative optimization algorithms and establishes under general assumptions that their convergence is asymptotically geometric. We also prove that under appropriate assumptions, the rate of convergence can be lower bounded. The convergence is then only geometric, and we provide the exact asymptotic convergence rate. This framework allows to deal with constrained optimization and encompasses the Expectation Maximization algorithm and the mirror descent algorithm, as well as some variants such as the alpha-Expectation Maximization or the Mirror Prox algorithm.Furthermore, we establish sufficient conditions for the convergence of the Mirror Prox algorithm, under which the method converges systematically to the unique minimizer of a convex function on a convex compact set. △ Less

Submitted 24 February, 2023; originally announced February 2023.

State and parameter learning with PaRIS particle Gibbs

Authors: Gabriel Cardoso, Yazid Janati El Idrissi, Sylvain Le Corff, Eric Moulines, Jimmy Olsson

Abstract: Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the s… ▽ More Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims. △ Less

Submitted 2 January, 2023; originally announced January 2023.

Amortized backward variational inference in nonlinear state-space models

Authors: Mathis Chagneux, Élisabeth Gassiat, Pierre Gloaguen, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: We consider the problem of state estimation in general state-space models using variational inference. For a generic variational family defined using the same backward decomposition as the actual joint smoothing distribution, we establish for the first time that, under mixing assumptions, the variational approximation of expectations of additive state functionals induces an error which grows at… ▽ More We consider the problem of state estimation in general state-space models using variational inference. For a generic variational family defined using the same backward decomposition as the actual joint smoothing distribution, we establish for the first time that, under mixing assumptions, the variational approximation of expectations of additive state functionals induces an error which grows at most linearly in the number of observations. This guarantee is consistent with the known upper bounds for the approximation of smoothing distributions using standard Monte Carlo methods. Moreover, we propose an amortized inference framework where a neural network shared over all times steps outputs the parameters of the variational kernels. We also study empirically parametrizations which allow analytical marginalization of the variational distributions, and therefore lead to efficient smoothing algorithms. Significant improvements are made over state-of-the art variational solutions, especially when the generative model depends on a strongly nonlinear and noninjective mixing function. △ Less

Submitted 1 June, 2022; originally announced June 2022.

Variance estimation for Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithms: a backward sampling approach

Authors: Yazid Janati El idrissi, Sylvain Le Corff, Yohan Petetin

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the problem of online asymptotic variance estimation for particle filtering and smoothing. Current solutions for the particle filter rely on the particle genealogy and are either unstable or hard to tune in practice. We propose to mitigate these limitations by introducing a new estimator of the asymptotic variance based on the so called backward weights. The resulting es… ▽ More In this paper, we consider the problem of online asymptotic variance estimation for particle filtering and smoothing. Current solutions for the particle filter rely on the particle genealogy and are either unstable or hard to tune in practice. We propose to mitigate these limitations by introducing a new estimator of the asymptotic variance based on the so called backward weights. The resulting estimator is weakly consistent and trades computational cost for more stability and reduced variance. We also propose a more computationally efficient estimator inspired by the PaRIS algorithm of Olsson & Westerborn. As an application, particle smoothing is considered and an estimator of the asymptotic variance of the Forward Filtering Backward Smoothing estimator applied to additive functionals is provided. △ Less

Submitted 2 January, 2023; v1 submitted 4 April, 2022; originally announced April 2022.

Diffusion bridges vector quantized Variational AutoEncoders

Authors: Max Cohen, Guillaume Quispe, Sylvain Le Corff, Charles Ollion, Eric Moulines

Abstract: Vector Quantized-Variational AutoEncoders (VQ-VAE) are generative models based on discrete latent representations of the data, where inputs are mapped to a finite set of learned embeddings.To generate new samples, an autoregressive prior distribution over the discrete states must be trained separately. This prior is generally very complex and leads to slow generation. In this work, we propose a ne… ▽ More Vector Quantized-Variational AutoEncoders (VQ-VAE) are generative models based on discrete latent representations of the data, where inputs are mapped to a finite set of learned embeddings.To generate new samples, an autoregressive prior distribution over the discrete states must be trained separately. This prior is generally very complex and leads to slow generation. In this work, we propose a new model to train the prior and the encoder/decoder networks simultaneously. We build a diffusion bridge between a continuous coded vector and a non-informative prior distribution. The latent discrete states are then given as random functions of these continuous vectors. We show that our model is competitive with the autoregressive prior on the mini-Imagenet and CIFAR dataset and is efficient in both optimization and sampling. Our framework also extends the standard VQ-VAE and enables end-to-end training. △ Less

Submitted 3 August, 2022; v1 submitted 10 February, 2022; originally announced February 2022.

HERMES: Hybrid Error-corrector Model with inclusion of External Signals for nonstationary fashion time series

Authors: Etienne David, Jean Bellot, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid massive wastes. By tracking thousands of fashion trends on social media with state-of-the-art computer vision approaches, we propose a new model for fashion ti… ▽ More Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid massive wastes. By tracking thousands of fashion trends on social media with state-of-the-art computer vision approaches, we propose a new model for fashion time series forecasting. Our contribution is twofold. We first provide publicly a dataset gathering 10000 weekly fashion time series. As influence dynamics are the key of emerging trend detection, we associate with each time series an external weak signal representing behaviours of influencers. Secondly, to leverage such a dataset, we propose a new hybrid forecasting model. Our approach combines per-time-series parametric models with seasonal components and a global recurrent neural network to include sporadic external signals. This hybrid model provides state-of-the-art results on the proposed fashion dataset, on the weekly time series of the M4 competition, and illustrates the benefit of the contribution of external weak signals. △ Less

Submitted 11 September, 2023; v1 submitted 7 February, 2022; originally announced February 2022.

Learning Natural Language Generation from Scratch

Authors: Alice Martin Donati, Guillaume Quispe, Charles Ollion, Sylvain Le Corff, Florian Strub, Olivier Pietquin

Abstract: This paper introduces TRUncated ReinForcement Learning for Language (TrufLL), an original ap-proach to train conditional language models from scratch by only using reinforcement learning (RL). AsRL methods unsuccessfully scale to large action spaces, we dynamically truncate the vocabulary spaceusing a generic language model. TrufLL thus enables to train a language agent by solely interacting withi… ▽ More This paper introduces TRUncated ReinForcement Learning for Language (TrufLL), an original ap-proach to train conditional language models from scratch by only using reinforcement learning (RL). AsRL methods unsuccessfully scale to large action spaces, we dynamically truncate the vocabulary spaceusing a generic language model. TrufLL thus enables to train a language agent by solely interacting withits environment without any task-specific prior knowledge; it is only guided with a task-agnostic languagemodel. Interestingly, this approach avoids the dependency to labelled datasets and inherently reduces pre-trained policy flaws such as language or exposure biases. We evaluate TrufLL on two visual questiongeneration tasks, for which we report positive results over performance and language metrics, which wethen corroborate with a human evaluation. To our knowledge, it is the first approach that successfullylearns a language generation policy (almost) from scratch. △ Less

Submitted 20 September, 2021; originally announced September 2021.

Disentangling Identifiable Features from Noisy Data with Structured Nonlinear ICA

Authors: Hermanni Hälvä, Sylvain Le Corff, Luc Lehéricy, Jonathan So, Yongjie Zhu, Elisabeth Gassiat, Aapo Hyvarinen

Abstract: We introduce a new general identifiable framework for principled disentanglement referred to as Structured Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (SNICA). Our contribution is to extend the identifiability theory of deep generative models for a very broad class of structured models. While previous works have shown identifiability for specific classes of time-series models, our theorems extend thi… ▽ More We introduce a new general identifiable framework for principled disentanglement referred to as Structured Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (SNICA). Our contribution is to extend the identifiability theory of deep generative models for a very broad class of structured models. While previous works have shown identifiability for specific classes of time-series models, our theorems extend this to more general temporal structures as well as to models with more complex structures such as spatial dependencies. In particular, we establish the major result that identifiability for this framework holds even in the presence of noise of unknown distribution. Finally, as an example of our framework's flexibility, we introduce the first nonlinear ICA model for time-series that combines the following very useful properties: it accounts for both nonstationarity and autocorrelation in a fully unsupervised setting; performs dimensionality reduction; models hidden states; and enables principled estimation and inference by variational maximum-likelihood. △ Less

Submitted 27 October, 2021; v1 submitted 17 June, 2021; originally announced June 2021.

NEO: Non Equilibrium Sampling on the Orbit of a Deterministic Transform

Authors: Achille Thin, Yazid Janati, Sylvain Le Corff, Charles Ollion, Arnaud Doucet, Alain Durmus, Eric Moulines, Christian Robert

Abstract: Sampling from a complex distribution $π$ and approximating its intractable normalizing constant Z are challenging problems. In this paper, a novel family of importance samplers (IS) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers is derived. Given an invertible map T, these schemes combine (with weights) elements from the forward and backward Orbits through points sampled from a proposal distributi… ▽ More Sampling from a complex distribution $π$ and approximating its intractable normalizing constant Z are challenging problems. In this paper, a novel family of importance samplers (IS) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers is derived. Given an invertible map T, these schemes combine (with weights) elements from the forward and backward Orbits through points sampled from a proposal distribution $ρ$. The map T does not leave the target $π$ invariant, hence the name NEO, standing for Non-Equilibrium Orbits. NEO-IS provides unbiased estimators of the normalizing constant and self-normalized IS estimators of expectations under $π$ while NEO-MCMC combines multiple NEO-IS estimates of the normalizing constant and an iterated sampling-importance resampling mechanism to sample from $π$. For T chosen as a discrete-time integrator of a conformal Hamiltonian system, NEO-IS achieves state-of-the art performance on difficult benchmarks and NEO-MCMC is able to explore highly multimodal targets. Additionally, we provide detailed theoretical results for both methods. In particular, we show that NEO-MCMC is uniformly geometrically ergodic and establish explicit mixing time estimates under mild conditions. △ Less

Submitted 23 August, 2021; v1 submitted 17 March, 2021; originally announced March 2021.

Joint self-supervised blind denoising and noise estimation

Authors: Jean Ollion, Charles Ollion, Elisabeth Gassiat, Luc Lehéricy, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: We propose a novel self-supervised image blind denoising approach in which two neural networks jointly predict the clean signal and infer the noise distribution. Assuming that the noisy observations are independent conditionally to the signal, the networks can be jointly trained without clean training data. Therefore, our approach is particularly relevant for biomedical image denoising where the n… ▽ More We propose a novel self-supervised image blind denoising approach in which two neural networks jointly predict the clean signal and infer the noise distribution. Assuming that the noisy observations are independent conditionally to the signal, the networks can be jointly trained without clean training data. Therefore, our approach is particularly relevant for biomedical image denoising where the noise is difficult to model precisely and clean training data are usually unavailable. Our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art self-supervised blind denoising algorithms, on six publicly available biomedical image datasets. We also show empirically with synthetic noisy data that our model captures the noise distribution efficiently. Finally, the described framework is simple, lightweight and computationally efficient, making it useful in practical cases. △ Less

Submitted 16 February, 2021; originally announced February 2021.

The Monte Carlo Transformer: a stochastic self-attention model for sequence prediction

Authors: Alice Martin, Charles Ollion, Florian Strub, Sylvain Le Corff, Olivier Pietquin

Abstract: This paper introduces the Sequential Monte Carlo Transformer, an original approach that naturally captures the observations distribution in a transformer architecture. The keys, queries, values and attention vectors of the network are considered as the unobserved stochastic states of its hidden structure. This generative model is such that at each time step the received observation is a random fun… ▽ More This paper introduces the Sequential Monte Carlo Transformer, an original approach that naturally captures the observations distribution in a transformer architecture. The keys, queries, values and attention vectors of the network are considered as the unobserved stochastic states of its hidden structure. This generative model is such that at each time step the received observation is a random function of its past states in a given attention window. In this general state-space setting, we use Sequential Monte Carlo methods to approximate the posterior distributions of the states given the observations, and to estimate the gradient of the log-likelihood. We hence propose a generative model giving a predictive distribution, instead of a single-point estimate. △ Less

Submitted 15 December, 2020; v1 submitted 15 July, 2020; originally announced July 2020.

End-to-end deep metamodeling to calibrate and optimize energy loads

Authors: Max Cohen, Maurice Charbit, Sylvain Le Corff, Marius Preda, Gilles Nozière

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new end-to-end methodology to optimize the energy performance and the comfort, air quality and hygiene of large buildings. A metamodel based on a Transformer network is introduced and trained using a dataset sampled with a simulation program. Then, a few physical parameters and the building management system settings of this metamodel are calibrated using the CMA-ES opt… ▽ More In this paper, we propose a new end-to-end methodology to optimize the energy performance and the comfort, air quality and hygiene of large buildings. A metamodel based on a Transformer network is introduced and trained using a dataset sampled with a simulation program. Then, a few physical parameters and the building management system settings of this metamodel are calibrated using the CMA-ES optimization algorithm and real data obtained from sensors. Finally, the optimal settings to minimize the energy loads while maintaining a target thermal comfort and air quality are obtained using a multi-objective optimization procedure. The numerical experiments illustrate how this metamodel ensures a significant gain in energy efficiency while being computationally much more appealing than models requiring a huge number of physical parameters to be estimated. △ Less

Submitted 19 June, 2020; originally announced June 2020.

Backward importance sampling for online estimation of state space models

Authors: Alice Martin, Marie-Pierre Etienne, Pierre Gloaguen, Sylvain Le Corff, Jimmy Olsson

Abstract: This paper proposes a new Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform online estimation in the context of state space models when either the transition density of the latent state or the conditional likelihood of an observation given a state is intractable. In this setting, obtaining low variance estimators of expectations under the posterior distributions of the unobserved states given the observ… ▽ More This paper proposes a new Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform online estimation in the context of state space models when either the transition density of the latent state or the conditional likelihood of an observation given a state is intractable. In this setting, obtaining low variance estimators of expectations under the posterior distributions of the unobserved states given the observations is a challenging task. Following recent theoretical results for pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo smoothers, a pseudo-marginal backward importance sampling step is introduced to estimate such expectations. This new step allows to reduce very significantly the computational time of the existing numerical solutions based on an acceptance-rejection procedure for similar performance, and to broaden the class of eligible models for such methods. For instance, in the context of multivariate stochastic differential equations, the proposed algorithm makes use of unbiased estimates of the unknown transition densities under much weaker assumptions than standard alternatives. The performance of this estimator is assessed for high-dimensional discrete-time latent data models, for recursive maximum likelihood estimation in the context of partially observed diffusion process, and in the case of a bidimensional partially observed stochastic Lotka-Volterra model. △ Less

Submitted 7 May, 2021; v1 submitted 13 February, 2020; originally announced February 2020.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo online smoothing algorithm

Authors: Pierre Gloaguen, Sylvain Le Corff, Jimmy Olsson

Abstract: We consider online computation of expectations of additive state functionals under general path probability measures proportional to products of unnormalised transition densities. These transition densities are assumed to be intractable but possible to estimate, with or without bias. Using pseudo-marginalisation techniques we are able to extend the particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PaRIS… ▽ More We consider online computation of expectations of additive state functionals under general path probability measures proportional to products of unnormalised transition densities. These transition densities are assumed to be intractable but possible to estimate, with or without bias. Using pseudo-marginalisation techniques we are able to extend the particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PaRIS) algorithm proposed in [J.Olsson and J.Westerborn. Efficient particle-based online smoothing in general hidden Markov models: The PaRIS algorithm. Bernoulli, 23(3):1951--1996, 2017] to this setting. The resulting algorithm, which has a linear complexity in the number of particles and constant memory requirements, applies to a wide range of challenging path-space Monte Carlo problems, including smoothing in partially observed diffusion processes and models with intractable likelihood. The algorithm is furnished with several theoretical results, including a central limit theorem, establishing its convergence and numerical stability. Moreover, under strong mixing assumptions we establish a novel $O(n \varepsilon)$ bound on the asymptotic bias of the algorithm, where $n$ is the path length and $\varepsilon$ controls the bias of the density estimators. △ Less

Submitted 12 April, 2021; v1 submitted 20 August, 2019; originally announced August 2019.

A Bayesian nonparametric approach for generalized Bradley-Terry models in random environment

Authors: Sylvain Le Corff, Matthieu Lerasle, Elodie Vernet

Abstract: This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in random environment since this framework happens to be relevant to predict for instance the issue of a championship from the observation of a few contests per team.… ▽ More This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in random environment since this framework happens to be relevant to predict for instance the issue of a championship from the observation of a few contests per team. This paper provides three contributions on a Bayesian nonparametric approach to solve this problem. First, we establish contraction rates of the posterior distribution. We also propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to approximately sample from this posterior distribution inspired from a recent Bayesian nonparametric method for hidden Markov models. Finally, the performance of this algorithm are appreciated by comparing predictions on the issue of a championship based on the actual values of the teams and those obtained by sampling from the estimated posterior distribution. △ Less

Submitted 24 August, 2018; originally announced August 2018.

Particle rejuvenation of Rao-Blackwellized Sequential Monte Carlo smoothers for Conditionally Linear and Gaussian models

Authors: Ngoc Minh Nguyen, Sylvain Le Corff, Eric Moulines

Abstract: This paper focuses on Sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothing distributions in conditionally linear and Gaussian state spaces. To reduce Monte Carlo variance of smoothers, it is typical in these models to use Rao-Blackwellization: particle approximation is used to sample sequences of hidden regimes while the Gaussian states are explicitly integrated conditional on the sequence of regime… ▽ More This paper focuses on Sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothing distributions in conditionally linear and Gaussian state spaces. To reduce Monte Carlo variance of smoothers, it is typical in these models to use Rao-Blackwellization: particle approximation is used to sample sequences of hidden regimes while the Gaussian states are explicitly integrated conditional on the sequence of regimes and observations, using variants of the Kalman filter / smoother. The first successful attempt to use Rao-Blackwellization for smoothing extends the Bryson-Frazier smoother for Gaussian linear state space models using the generalized two-filter formula together with Kalman filters / smoothers. More recently, a forward backward decomposition of smoothing distributions mimicking the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother for the regimes combined with backward Kalman updates has been introduced. This paper investigates the benefit of introducing additional rejuvenation steps in all these algorithms to sample at each time instant new regimes conditional on the forward and backward particles. This defines particle based approximations of the smoothing distributions whose support is not restricted to the set of particles sampled in the forward or backward filter. These procedures are applied to commodity markets which are described using a two factor model based on the spot price and a convenience yield for crude oil data. △ Less

Submitted 5 July, 2017; originally announced July 2017.

Online Sequential Monte Carlo smoother for partially observed stochastic differential equations

Authors: Pierre Gloaguen, Marie-Pierre Etienne, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: This paper introduces a new algorithm to approximate smoothed additive functionals for partially observed stochastic differential equations. This method relies on a recent procedure which allows to compute such approximations online, i.e. as the observations are received, and with a computational complexity growing linearly with the number of Monte Carlo samples. This online smoother cannot be use… ▽ More This paper introduces a new algorithm to approximate smoothed additive functionals for partially observed stochastic differential equations. This method relies on a recent procedure which allows to compute such approximations online, i.e. as the observations are received, and with a computational complexity growing linearly with the number of Monte Carlo samples. This online smoother cannot be used directly in the case of partially observed stochastic differential equations since the transition density of the latent data is usually unknown. We prove that a similar algorithm may still be defined for partially observed continuous processes by replacing this unknown quantity by an unbiased estimator obtained for instance using general Poisson estimators. We prove that this estimator is consistent and its performance are illustrated using data from two models. △ Less

Submitted 6 March, 2017; originally announced March 2017.

Stochastic differential equation based on a multimodal potential to model movement data in ecology

Authors: Pierre Gloaguen, Marie-Pierre Etienne, Sylvain Le Corff

Abstract: This paper proposes a new model for individuals movement in ecology. The movement process is defined as a solution to a stochastic differential equation whose drift is the gradient of a multimodal potential surface. This offers a new flexible approach among the popular potential based movement models in ecology. To perform parameter inference, the widely used Euler method is compared with two othe… ▽ More This paper proposes a new model for individuals movement in ecology. The movement process is defined as a solution to a stochastic differential equation whose drift is the gradient of a multimodal potential surface. This offers a new flexible approach among the popular potential based movement models in ecology. To perform parameter inference, the widely used Euler method is compared with two other pseudo-likelihood procedures and with a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization approach based on exact simulation of diffusions. Performances of all methods are assessed with simulated data and with a data set of fishing vessels trajectories. We show that the usual Euler method performs worse than the other procedures for all sampling schemes. △ Less

Submitted 21 September, 2017; v1 submitted 30 September, 2015; originally announced September 2015.

Statistical Inference for Oscillation Processes

Authors: Rainer Dahlhaus, Thierry Dumont, Sylvain Le Corff, Jan C. Neddermeyer

Abstract: A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorith… ▽ More A new model for time series with a specific oscillation pattern is proposed. The model consists of a hidden phase process controlling the speed of polling and a nonparametric curve characterizing the pattern, leading together to a generalized state space model. Identifiability of the model is proved and a method for statistical inference based on a particle smoother and a nonparametric EM algorithm is developed. In particular, the oscillation pattern and the unobserved phase process are estimated. The proposed algorithms are computationally efficient and their performance is assessed through simulations and an application to human electrocardiogram recordings. △ Less

Submitted 12 August, 2016; v1 submitted 16 December, 2014; originally announced December 2014.