Cross Validated
2026-08-14 15:54 UTC
By nito
AI-113-20260814-social-media-4d59c798
Exponential lifetime of components in a system: probability system survives past time t
I am studying the following problem from an exam. A system consists of two subsystems connected in parallel. The first subsystem is just one component c1. The second subsystem is made of three components c2,c3,c4 connected in series. The lifetimes of c1,…,c4 are independent exponential random variables with rates λ1=0.11,λ2=0.03,λ3=0.01,λ4=0.06 (times in minutes). Compute the probability that the whole system is still working 9 minutes after switching on My reasoning was the following. Let Xi be the lifetime of component ci, so P(Xi>t)=e^−λit For the series subsystem c2,c3,c4 the lifetime is Y=min(X2,X3,X4), so P(Y>t)=e^−(λ2+λ3+λ4)t Since the first subsystem c1 and the series subsystem are in parallel, the lifetime of the whole system is X=max(X1,Y). Thus P(X>t)=1−P(X1≤t,Y≤t)=1−(1−e−λ1t)(1−e−(λ2+λ3+λ4)t). So for t=9 $P(X>9)=e^{−9λ1}+e^{−9(λ2+λ3+λ4)}−e^{−9(λ1+λ2+λ3+λ4)}$ . With the given values I get P(X>9)≈0.631. However, when I discussed the exam with the professor, he said that I was mixing things, and that putting two exponential lifetimes in parallel does not give an exponential lifetime. I understand that the maximum of independent exponentials is not exponential, but I did not assume it was: I used the complement formula above. So my questions are: Is the value i get correct? If yes, why would the professor say that I was treating the parallel system as exponential? If not, where exactly is the mistake?
I am studying the following problem from an exam. A system consists of two subsystems connected in parallel. The first subsystem is just one component c1. The second subsystem is made of three components c2,c3,c4 connected in series. The lifetimes of c1,…,c4 are independent exponential random variables with rates λ1=0.11,λ2=0.03,λ3=0.01,λ4=0.06 (times in minutes). Compute the probability that the whole system is still working 9 minutes after switching on My reasoning was the following. Let Xi be the lifetime of component ci, so P(Xi>t)=e^−λit For the series subsystem c2,c3,c4 the lifetime is Y=min(X2,X3,X4), so P(Y>t)=e^−(λ2+λ3+λ4)t Since the first subsystem c1 and the series subsystem are in parallel, the lifetime of the whole system is X=max(X1,Y). Thus P(X>t)=1−P(X1≤t,Y≤t)=1−(1−e−λ1t)(1−e−(λ2+λ3+λ4)t). So for t=9 $P(X>9)=e^{−9λ1}+e^{−9(λ2+λ3+λ4)}−e^{−9(λ1+λ2+λ3+λ4)}$ . With the given values I get P(X>9)≈0.631. However, when I discussed the exam with the professor, he said that I was mixing things, and that putting two exponential lifetimes in parallel does not give an exponential lifetime. I understand that the maximum of independent exponentials is not exponential, but I did not assume it was: I used the complement formula above. So my questions are: Is the value i get correct? If yes, why would the professor say that I was treating the parallel system as exponential? If not, where exactly is the mistake?
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Cross Validated
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