When Must We Defect? (US & China)

Epistemic status: exploratory, written quickly after Ezra Klein's podcast with Matt Sheehan If superintelligence comes to Earth, I would prefer it be controlled by democratic governments than by autocratic ones. I find Dario's arguments to fear a CCP-controlled superintelligence to be compelling. However, I increasingly worry that this may be a false choice. In most circumstances, I would likely prefer even autocratic control as opposed to rogue uncontrolled superintelligence, and this alien intelligence controlling humanity (I assume for the sake of this post that such intelligence will come in some form). To make that concrete: If the US and China are the two countries on the frontier of AI development, then I think it behooves a safety-minded person to think not just about which country they would prefer to control superintelligence, but also which one has a better shot at controlling it, conditional on reaching it first. To think about what aspects might affect the two nations' chances at this task, and under what conditions it might become a moral obligation for a participant on either side to defect to the other, lest we all lose. Stated Intentions The current US administration has explicitly disregarded AI safety concerns, stating on Truth Social [1] that I am the Hoax Buster, and I’m right now breaking another Hoax — That AI is going to take over, consume, and destroy the World, and that Robots will be marching into our Cities, and getting rid of us all! This is even…